#62

East Carolina Pirates

American Athletic · 0-0

Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium · 50,000 seats

East Carolina Pirates rank #62 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.015 points per play (Elo 1590), a 0-0 record in the American Athletic, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.015
#62 in FBS
Offense
+0.007
higher is better
Defense
-0.008
lower is better
SOS
-0.024
mean opp. rating
Elo
1590
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind East Carolina's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.015

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.079

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.064

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production14%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.35σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-2.0 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1@AlabamaSep 5
2vsApp StateSep 12
3@Old DominionSep 19
4vsNorth Carolina CentralSep 26
6vsRiceOct 10
7@UABOct 15
8@MemphisOct 22
9vsTempleOct 31
10vsSouth FloridaNov 7
11@CharlotteNov 14
12@ArmyNov 21
13vsFlorida AtlanticNov 27