#36

Old Dominion Monarchs

Sun Belt · 0-0

S.B. Ballard Stadium · 20,118 seats

Old Dominion Monarchs rank #36 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.045 points per play (Elo 1624), a 0-0 record in the Sun Belt, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.045
#36 in FBS
Offense
+0.026
higher is better
Defense
-0.019
lower is better
SOS
-0.028
mean opp. rating
Elo
1624
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Old Dominion's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.045

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.168

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.123

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production9%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.94σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-6.0 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsNorfolk StateSep 5
2@Virginia TechSep 12
3vsEast CarolinaSep 19
4vsJames MadisonSep 26
5@Georgia StateOct 3
6@App StateOct 10
7vsGeorgia SouthernOct 15
8@Louisiana TechOct 24
9vsMarshallOct 31
10@Coastal CarolinaNov 7
12@UConnNov 21
13vsSouthern MissNov 28