#59

Marshall Thundering Herd

Sun Belt · 0-0

Joan C. Edwards Stadium · 38,016 seats

Marshall Thundering Herd rank #59 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.019 points per play (Elo 1514), a 0-0 record in the Sun Belt, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.019
#59 in FBS
Offense
+0.015
higher is better
Defense
-0.004
lower is better
SOS
-0.036
mean opp. rating
Elo
1514
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Marshall's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.019

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.019

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.000

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production99%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.57σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal+4.8 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1@Penn StateSep 5
2vsMiddle TennesseeSep 12
3@Missouri StateSep 19
4vsGardner-WebbSep 26
5@James MadisonOct 3
6vsCoastal CarolinaOct 10
8vsSouth AlabamaOct 20
9@Old DominionOct 31
10@Georgia SouthernNov 7
11vsApp StateNov 14
12vsGeorgia StateNov 21
13@UL MonroeNov 28