#61

James Madison Dukes

Sun Belt · 0-0

Bridgeforth Stadium · 24,877 seats

James Madison Dukes rank #61 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.018 points per play (Elo 1565), a 0-0 record in the Sun Belt, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.018
#61 in FBS
Offense
+0.011
higher is better
Defense
-0.007
lower is better
SOS
-0.029
mean opp. rating
Elo
1565
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind James Madison's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.018

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.131

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.113

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production8%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.62σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal+4.9 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeYes

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsLibertySep 5
2vsWagnerSep 12
3@San Diego StateSep 20
4@Old DominionSep 26
5vsMarshallOct 3
6@Georgia SouthernOct 10
7vsGeorgia StateOct 17
8@App StateOct 22
9vsTroyOct 29
10@Southern MissNov 6
11@UConnNov 14
13vsCoastal CarolinaNov 28