#26

James Madison Dukes

Sun Belt · 12-2

Bridgeforth Stadium · 24,877 seats

James Madison Dukes rank #26 of 136 FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.101 points per play (Elo 1715), a 12-2 record in the Sun Belt, and 32% of that rating still riding on preseason priors. They went 9-5 against the closing spread.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.101
#26 of 136
Elo
1715
Off EPA/play
+0.036
higher is better
Def EPA/play
-0.107
lower is better
Off success
+0.021
Def success
-0.079
Off explosive
+0.003
Def explosive
-0.025
Rush EPA
+0.042
offense
Pass EPA
+0.043
offense
Pts / drive
2.77
10.7 drives/gm
Pts / opportunity
4.37
inside opp 40

All splits are opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind James Madison's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.009

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior remaining32%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production78%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-1.25σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal+2.4 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Quarterback

Alonza Barnett III7 starts

Rating trajectory

Weekly net rating across the season — starts at the preseason prior and moves as real games replace it.

+0.100.00Wk 1Wk 17

Schedule & results

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsWeber StateW 4510-26.4-27.0W
2@LouisvilleL 1428-18.3-15.2W
4@LibertyW 3113-0.6+7.5W
5vsGeorgia SouthernW 3510-9.6-15.0W
6@Georgia StateW 147+10.0+19.5L
7vsLouisianaW 2414-9.4-18.5L
8vsOld DominionW 6327+0.9-3.0W
10@Texas StateW 52200.0+7.5W
11@MarshallW 3523+7.9+13.5L
12vsApp StateW 5810-19.9-21.0W
13vsWashington StateW 2420-14.6-15.5L
14@Coastal CarolinaW 5910+17.9+24.0W
15vsTroyW 3114-17.8-24.5L
17@OregonL 3451-14.9-20.5W

Lines are from this team's perspective (negative = favored). ATS is against the consensus closing spread.

For analytical/entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. · Model B13 · © 2026 Predictium · Follow @PredictiumAI