#35

Texas State Bobcats

Pac-12 · 0-0

Bobcat Stadium (TX) · 30,000 seats

Texas State Bobcats rank #35 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.047 points per play (Elo 1568), a 0-0 record in the Pac-12, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.047
#35 in FBS
Offense
+0.029
higher is better
Defense
-0.018
lower is better
SOS
-0.001
mean opp. rating
Elo
1568
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Texas State's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.047

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.080

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.033

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production76%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.35σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-2.5 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1@TexasSep 5
2vsUTSASep 12
3vsNorth TexasSep 19
4vsIncarnate WordSep 26
5@San Diego StateOct 4
7vsColorado StateOct 16
8vsUtah StateOct 24
9@Boise StateNov 1
10@Oregon StateNov 8
11vsFresno StateNov 14
12vsWashington StateNov 21