San Diego State Aztecs
Pac-12 · 3-4Snapdragon Stadium · 35,000 seats
San Diego State Aztecs rank #94 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.002 points per play (Elo 1466), a 3-4 record in the Pac-12, and 46% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.
Ratings
Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.
What drives our rating
No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind San Diego State's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.
Where our rating started before a snap was played
Last season's final rating, for comparison
This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number
How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive
Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster
Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average
Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal
First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors
Rating trajectory
Weekly net rating across the season — starts at the preseason prior and moves as real games replace it.
Schedule & results
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Our line | Market | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsPortland State | W 53–20 | — | — | — |
| 2 | @UCLA | L 10–28 | — | — | — |
| 3 | vsJames Madison | L 13–26 | — | — | — |
| 4 | @Toledo | L 16–41 | — | — | — |
| 5 | vsTexas State | W 31–29 | — | — | — |
| 6 | @Oregon State | L 14–66 | — | — | — |
| 7 | vsFresno State | W 26–23 | — | — | — |
| 8 | @Colorado State | Oct 24 | — | — | — |
| 9 | vsWashington State | Oct 31 | — | — | — |
| 11 | vsUtah State | Nov 15 | — | — | — |
| 12 | @Boise State | Nov 22 | — | — | — |