#77

Utah State Aggies

Pac-12 · 0-0

Maverik Stadium · 25,513 seats

Utah State Aggies rank #77 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.004 points per play (Elo 1487), a 0-0 record in the Pac-12, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.004
#77 in FBS
Offense
+0.001
higher is better
Defense
+0.005
lower is better
SOS
+0.007
mean opp. rating
Elo
1487
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Utah State's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.004

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.030

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.034

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production65%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.94σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal+8.3 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsIdaho StateSep 5
2@WashingtonSep 12
3@UtahSep 19
4vsTroySep 26
5@Boise StateOct 3
6vsWashington StateOct 10
8@Texas StateOct 24
9vsColorado StateOct 31
10vsFresno StateNov 8
11@San Diego StateNov 15
12@Oregon StateNov 22