#113

Oregon State Beavers

Pac-12 · 0-0

Reser Stadium · 43,363 seats

Oregon State Beavers rank #113 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.039 points per play (Elo 1377), a 0-0 record in the Pac-12, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.039
#113 in FBS
Offense
-0.018
higher is better
Defense
+0.021
lower is better
SOS
+0.002
mean opp. rating
Elo
1377
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Oregon State's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.039

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating-0.056

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment+0.017

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production58%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.27σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-13.8 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeYes

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1@HoustonSep 5
2vsTexas TechSep 12
3vsMontanaSep 20
4@UTEPSep 27
5@Colorado StateOct 3
6vsSan Diego StateOct 10
7vsWashington StateOct 17
9@Fresno StateOct 31
10vsTexas StateNov 8
11@Boise StateNov 14
12vsUtah StateNov 22