#95

Troy Trojans

Sun Belt · 0-0

Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · 30,000 seats

Troy Trojans rank #95 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.023 points per play (Elo 1514), a 0-0 record in the Sun Belt, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.023
#95 in FBS
Offense
-0.011
higher is better
Defense
+0.011
lower is better
SOS
-0.026
mean opp. rating
Elo
1514
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Troy's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.023

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating-0.039

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment+0.017

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production35%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.56σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-11.1 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsSam HoustonSep 5
2vsAlabama StateSep 12
3@MissouriSep 19
4@Utah StateSep 26
6vsSouthern MissOct 7
7@LouisianaOct 17
8vsUL MonroeOct 24
9@James MadisonOct 29
10vsLouisiana TechNov 7
11@South AlabamaNov 14
12vsGeorgia SouthernNov 21
13@Arkansas StateNov 28