#93

Southern Miss Golden Eagles

Sun Belt · 0-0

M. M. Roberts Stadium · 36,000 seats

Southern Miss Golden Eagles rank #93 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.021 points per play (Elo 1434), a 0-0 record in the Sun Belt, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.021
#93 in FBS
Offense
-0.012
higher is better
Defense
+0.010
lower is better
SOS
-0.023
mean opp. rating
Elo
1434
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Southern Miss's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.021

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.016

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.037

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production90%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.51σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal+8.0 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeYes

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsAlcorn StateSep 5
2@AuburnSep 12
3vsUConnSep 19
4@TulaneSep 26
6@TroyOct 7
7vsArkansas StateOct 17
8vsLouisianaOct 24
9@UL MonroeOct 31
10vsJames MadisonNov 6
11@Louisiana TechNov 14
12vsSouth AlabamaNov 21
13@Old DominionNov 28