College Football
#55

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

Sun Belt · 4-2

Joe Aillet Stadium · 28,019 seats

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs rank #55 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.045 points per play (Elo 1501), a 4-2 record in the Sun Belt, and 50% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.045
#55 in FBS
Offense
+0.021
higher is better
Defense
-0.024
lower is better
SOS
+0.006
mean opp. rating
Elo
1501
Off EPA/play
+0.031
higher is better
Def EPA/play
-0.047
lower is better
Off success
+0.002
Def success
-0.021
Off explosive
+0.010
Def explosive
+0.003
Rush EPA
+0.012
offense
Pass EPA
+0.058
offense
Pts / drive
2.60
10.5 drives/gm
Pts / opportunity
3.10
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Louisiana Tech's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.011

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.024

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.013

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining50%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production64%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.95σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-10.8 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Rating trajectory

Weekly net rating across the season — starts at the preseason prior and moves as real games replace it.

+0.040.00Wk 1Wk 8

Schedule & results

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsNorthwestern StateW 80–6———
2@LSUL 14–45———
3@BaylorL 19–36———
5vsArmyW 31–29———
6vsLouisianaW 32–31———
7@UL MonroeW 24–0———
8vsOld DominionOct 24———
9@South AlabamaOct 31———
10@TroyNov 7———
11vsSouthern MissNov 14———
12vsArkansas StateNov 21———
13@Georgia SouthernNov 28———