#22

LSU Tigers

SEC · 0-0

Tiger Stadium (LA) · 102,321 seats

LSU Tigers rank #22 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.076 points per play (Elo 1597), a 0-0 record in the SEC, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.076
#22 in FBS
Offense
+0.039
higher is better
Defense
-0.038
lower is better
SOS
+0.040
mean opp. rating
Elo
1597
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind LSU's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.076

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.089

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.013

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production21%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent+1.91σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal+3.3 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeYes

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsClemsonSep 5
2vsLouisiana TechSep 12
3@Ole MissSep 19
4vsTexas A&MSep 26
5vsMcNeeseOct 3
6@KentuckyOct 10
7vsMississippi StateOct 17
8@AuburnOct 24
10vsAlabamaNov 7
11vsTexasNov 14
12@TennesseeNov 21
13@ArkansasNov 28