#16

Tennessee Volunteers

SEC · 0-0

Neyland Stadium · 102,455 seats

Tennessee Volunteers rank #16 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.095 points per play (Elo 1624), a 0-0 record in the SEC, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.095
#16 in FBS
Offense
+0.047
higher is better
Defense
-0.048
lower is better
SOS
+0.034
mean opp. rating
Elo
1624
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Tennessee's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.095

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.130

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.035

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production35%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent+1.57σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-7.0 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsFurmanSep 5
2@Georgia TechSep 12
3vsKennesaw StateSep 19
4vsTexasSep 26
5vsAuburnOct 3
6@ArkansasOct 10
7vsAlabamaOct 17
8@South CarolinaOct 24
10vsKentuckyNov 7
11@Texas A&MNov 14
12vsLSUNov 21
13@VanderbiltNov 28