College Football
#107

Kennesaw State Owls

Conference USA · 1-5

Fifth Third Stadium · 11,040 seats

Kennesaw State Owls rank #107 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.022 points per play (Elo 1301), a 1-5 record in the Conference USA, and 50% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.022
#107 in FBS
Offense
-0.011
higher is better
Defense
+0.011
lower is better
SOS
-0.002
mean opp. rating
Elo
1301
Off EPA/play
+0.006
higher is better
Def EPA/play
-0.002
lower is better
Off success
+0.010
Def success
-0.004
Off explosive
-0.008
Def explosive
-0.003
Rush EPA
+0.005
offense
Pass EPA
+0.000
offense
Pts / drive
2.14
10.1 drives/gm
Pts / opportunity
2.61
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Kennesaw State's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.051

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.003

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.054

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining50%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production6%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-1.24σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal+8.3 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Rating trajectory

Weekly net rating across the season — starts at the preseason prior and moves as real games replace it.

0.00-0.05Wk 1Wk 8

Schedule & results

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsWest GeorgiaW 47–0———
2vsGeorgia StateL 17–31———
3@TennesseeL 9–42———
4@Arkansas StateL 14–17———
6vsJacksonville StateL 26–27———
7@Missouri StateL 21–24———
8vsLibertyOct 22———
9@Middle TennesseeOct 28———
10vsDelawareNov 7———
11@Sam HoustonNov 14———
12vsFlorida InternationalNov 21———
13@Western KentuckyNov 28———