#121

Kennesaw State Owls

Conference USA · 0-0

Fifth Third Stadium · 11,040 seats

Kennesaw State Owls rank #121 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.051 points per play (Elo 1370), a 0-0 record in the Conference USA, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.051
#121 in FBS
Offense
-0.029
higher is better
Defense
+0.023
lower is better
SOS
-0.034
mean opp. rating
Elo
1370
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Kennesaw State's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.051

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.003

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.054

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production6%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-1.24σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal+8.3 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsWest GeorgiaSep 3
2vsGeorgia StateSep 12
3@TennesseeSep 19
4@Arkansas StateSep 26
6vsJacksonville StateOct 7
7@Missouri StateOct 14
8vsLibertyOct 22
9@Middle TennesseeOct 28
10vsDelawareNov 7
11@Sam HoustonNov 14
12vsFlorida InternationalNov 21
13@Western KentuckyNov 28