Arkansas State Red Wolves
Sun Belt · 3-4Centennial Bank Stadium · 30,382 seats
Arkansas State Red Wolves rank #109 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.024 points per play (Elo 1457), a 3-4 record in the Sun Belt, and 46% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.
Ratings
Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.
What drives our rating
No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Arkansas State's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.
Where our rating started before a snap was played
Last season's final rating, for comparison
This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number
How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive
Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster
Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average
Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal
First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors
Quarterback
Rating trajectory
Weekly net rating across the season — starts at the preseason prior and moves as real games replace it.
Schedule & results
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Our line | Market | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @Memphis | L 24–42 | — | — | — |
| 2 | vsWest Georgia | W 52–7 | — | — | — |
| 3 | @TCU | L 7–31 | — | — | — |
| 4 | vsKennesaw State | W 17–14 | — | — | — |
| 5 | @Louisiana | L 20–23 | — | — | — |
| 6 | vsSouth Alabama | L 49–56 | — | — | — |
| 7 | @Southern Miss | W 23–13 | — | — | — |
| 8 | vsGeorgia State | Oct 24 | — | — | — |
| 10 | vsUL Monroe | Nov 7 | — | — | — |
| 11 | @Coastal Carolina | Nov 14 | — | — | — |
| 12 | @Louisiana Tech | Nov 21 | — | — | — |
| 13 | vsTroy | Nov 28 | — | — | — |