College Football
#22

Texas A&M Aggies

SEC · 4-3

Kyle Field · 102,733 seats

Texas A&M Aggies rank #22 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.091 points per play (Elo 1618), a 4-3 record in the SEC, and 46% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.091
#22 in FBS
Offense
+0.037
higher is better
Defense
-0.054
lower is better
SOS
+0.058
mean opp. rating
Elo
1618
Off EPA/play
+0.016
higher is better
Def EPA/play
-0.051
lower is better
Off success
+0.012
Def success
-0.022
Off explosive
-0.005
Def explosive
0.000
Rush EPA
+0.026
offense
Pass EPA
+0.016
offense
Pts / drive
2.96
9.8 drives/gm
Pts / opportunity
3.29
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Texas A&M's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.120

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.142

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.022

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining46%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production73%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent+1.92σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-1.2 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Rating trajectory

Weekly net rating across the season — starts at the preseason prior and moves as real games replace it.

+0.120.00Wk 1Wk 8

Schedule & results

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsMissouri StateW 50–0———
2vsArizona StateW 48–20———
3vsKentuckyL 21–31———
4@LSUL 6–35———
5vsArkansasW 34–7———
6@MissouriL 6–27———
7vsThe CitadelW 41–0———
8@AlabamaOct 24———
10@South CarolinaNov 7———
11vsTennesseeNov 14———
12@OklahomaNov 21———
13vsTexasNov 28———