#7

Texas A&M Aggies

SEC · 0-0

Kyle Field · 102,733 seats

Texas A&M Aggies rank #7 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.120 points per play (Elo 1684), a 0-0 record in the SEC, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.120
#7 in FBS
Offense
+0.062
higher is better
Defense
-0.058
lower is better
SOS
+0.035
mean opp. rating
Elo
1684
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Texas A&M's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.120

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.142

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.022

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production73%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent+1.92σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-1.2 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsMissouri StateSep 5
2vsArizona StateSep 12
3vsKentuckySep 19
4@LSUSep 26
5vsArkansasOct 3
6@MissouriOct 10
7vsThe CitadelOct 17
8@AlabamaOct 24
10@South CarolinaNov 7
11vsTennesseeNov 14
12@OklahomaNov 21
13vsTexasNov 28