#102

Army Black Knights

American Athletic · 0-0

Michie Stadium · 38,000 seats

Army Black Knights rank #102 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.029 points per play (Elo 1589), a 0-0 record in the American Athletic, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.029
#102 in FBS
Offense
-0.005
higher is better
Defense
+0.024
lower is better
SOS
-0.033
mean opp. rating
Elo
1589
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Army's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.029

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.020

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.049

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production80%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-2.71σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-1.6 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsBryantSep 5
2vsSouth FloridaSep 12
4@TempleSep 25
5@Louisiana TechOct 3
6vsTulaneOct 10
7vsFlorida AtlanticOct 17
8@TulsaOct 24
9@MemphisOct 31
10vsAir ForceNov 8
12vsEast CarolinaNov 21
13@RiceNov 28
15NNavyDec 12