#127

Rice Owls

American Athletic · 0-0

Rice Stadium · 47,000 seats

Rice Owls rank #127 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.061 points per play (Elo 1407), a 0-0 record in the American Athletic, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.061
#127 in FBS
Offense
-0.033
higher is better
Defense
+0.028
lower is better
SOS
-0.001
mean opp. rating
Elo
1407
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Rice's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.061

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating-0.107

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment+0.046

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production39%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.60σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-1.7 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsHouston ChristianSep 5
2@Notre DameSep 12
3vsWestern MichiganSep 19
4@Fresno StateSep 27
5vsUTSAOct 3
6@East CarolinaOct 10
7vsTulsaOct 17
8@Florida AtlanticOct 24
10@North TexasNov 7
11vsTulaneNov 14
12@TempleNov 20
13vsArmyNov 28