#75

Western Michigan Broncos

Mid-American · 10-4

Waldo Stadium · 30,200 seats

Western Michigan Broncos rank #75 of 136 FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.009 points per play (Elo 1623), a 10-4 record in the Mid-American, and 32% of that rating still riding on preseason priors. They went 10-3 against the closing spread.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.009
#75 of 136
Elo
1623
Off EPA/play
-0.028
higher is better
Def EPA/play
-0.046
lower is better
Off success
+0.005
Def success
-0.018
Off explosive
-0.010
Def explosive
-0.003
Rush EPA
-0.002
offense
Pass EPA
-0.088
offense
Pts / drive
2.14
10.0 drives/gm
Pts / opportunity
3.56
inside opp 40

All splits are opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Western Michigan's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.012

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior remaining32%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production100%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.76σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-4.4 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Quarterback

Broc Lowry6 starts

Rating trajectory

Weekly net rating across the season — starts at the preseason prior and moves as real games replace it.

+0.01-0.03Wk 1Wk 17

Schedule & results

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1@Michigan StateL 623-12.7-21.5W
2vsNorth TexasL 3033+2.3+12.2W
3@IllinoisL 038-23.7-27.5L
4vsToledoW 1413+14.0+13.0W
5vsRhode IslandW 4714-5.2-7.5W
6@MassachusettsW 213+8.3+12.5W
7vsBall StateW 420-10.2-9.5W
9@Miami (OH)L 1726-4.9-2.5L
10vsCentral MichiganW 2421-5.0-5.5L
12vsOhioW 1713+2.5-1.5W
13@Northern IllinoisW 3519+0.5+7.0W
14@Eastern MichiganW 3121+9.8+10.0push
15NMiami (OH)W 2313-2.1-2.5W
17NKennesaw StateW 416-9.5-3.5W

Lines are from this team's perspective (negative = favored). ATS is against the consensus closing spread.

For analytical/entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. · Model B13 · © 2026 Predictium · Follow @PredictiumAI