#122

Buffalo Bulls

Mid-American · 0-0

UB Stadium · 30,270 seats

Buffalo Bulls rank #122 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.054 points per play (Elo 1449), a 0-0 record in the Mid-American, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.054
#122 in FBS
Offense
-0.031
higher is better
Defense
+0.023
lower is better
SOS
-0.051
mean opp. rating
Elo
1449
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Buffalo's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.054

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating-0.030

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.024

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production-1%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.90σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-0.2 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsUAlbanySep 3
2@Florida InternationalSep 12
3@Penn StateSep 19
4vsRobert MorrisSep 26
5vsWestern MichiganOct 3
6@ToledoOct 10
7vsMassachusettsOct 17
8vsBowling GreenOct 24
10@Miami (OH)Nov 4
11@Ball StateNov 11
12vsCentral MichiganNov 18
13@AkronNov 27