#79

Florida Atlantic Owls

American Athletic · 0-0

FAU Stadium · 29,419 seats

Florida Atlantic Owls rank #79 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.005 points per play (Elo 1414), a 0-0 record in the American Athletic, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.005
#79 in FBS
Offense
+0.001
higher is better
Defense
+0.006
lower is better
SOS
-0.022
mean opp. rating
Elo
1414
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Florida Atlantic's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.005

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating-0.025

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment+0.021

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production68%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.58σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-6.8 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1@FloridaSep 5
2vsNavySep 12
3vsFlorida InternationalSep 19
4@UL MonroeSep 26
5vsTexas SouthernOct 3
7@ArmyOct 17
8vsRiceOct 24
9@North TexasOct 29
10vsUTSANov 6
11@TulsaNov 14
12vsSouth FloridaNov 21
13@East CarolinaNov 27