#3

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

FBS Independents · 0-0

Notre Dame Stadium · 80,795 seats

Notre Dame Fighting Irish rank #3 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.181 points per play (Elo 1784), a 0-0 record in the FBS Independents, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.181
#3 in FBS
Offense
+0.094
higher is better
Defense
-0.086
lower is better
SOS
+0.001
mean opp. rating
Elo
1784
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Notre Dame's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.181

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.279

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.098

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production51%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent+2.07σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-7.5 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1NWisconsinSep 6
2vsRiceSep 12
3vsMichigan StateSep 19
4@PurdueSep 26
5@North CarolinaOct 3
6vsStanfordOct 10
7@BYUOct 17
9NNavyOct 31
10vsMiamiNov 8
11vsBoston CollegeNov 14
12vsSMUNov 22
13@SyracuseNov 28