#131

New Mexico State Aggies

Conference USA · 0-1

Aggie Memorial Stadium · 28,853 seats

New Mexico State Aggies rank #131 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.070 points per play (Elo 1336), a 0-1 record in the Conference USA, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.070
#131 in FBS
Offense
-0.036
higher is better
Defense
+0.034
lower is better
SOS
-0.028
mean opp. rating
Elo
1336
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind New Mexico State's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.070

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating-0.059

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.011

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production24%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-1.56σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal+0.9 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule & results

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1@Florida StateL 1734
1vsMercyhurstSep 6
2@Hawai'iSep 13
4vsNew MexicoSep 26
5vsWestern KentuckyOct 2
6@Florida InternationalOct 7
8@Sam HoustonOct 22
9vsJacksonville StateOct 29
10vsLibertyNov 7
11@Missouri StateNov 14
12vsDelawareNov 21
13@Middle TennesseeNov 28