#104

Ohio Bobcats

Mid-American · 0-0

Peden Stadium · 24,000 seats

Ohio Bobcats rank #104 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.032 points per play (Elo 1622), a 0-0 record in the Mid-American, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.032
#104 in FBS
Offense
-0.012
higher is better
Defense
+0.020
lower is better
SOS
-0.026
mean opp. rating
Elo
1622
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Ohio's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.032

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.030

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.061

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production63%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-1.10σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal+2.2 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeYes

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1@NebraskaSep 5
2vsJacksonville StateSep 12
3@South AlabamaSep 19
4vsStonehillSep 26
5@Kent StateOct 3
6vsCentral MichiganOct 10
7@Sacramento StateOct 17
8vsEastern MichiganOct 24
10@AkronNov 4
11@Miami (OH)Nov 11
12vsBall StateNov 18
13vsToledoNov 27