#58

Minnesota Golden Gophers

Big Ten · 0-0

Huntington Bank Stadium · 50,850 seats

Minnesota Golden Gophers rank #58 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.020 points per play (Elo 1598), a 0-0 record in the Big Ten, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.020
#58 in FBS
Offense
+0.011
higher is better
Defense
-0.010
lower is better
SOS
+0.019
mean opp. rating
Elo
1598
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Minnesota's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.020

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.001

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment+0.019

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production65%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent+0.42σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-0.5 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsEastern IllinoisSep 4
2vsMississippi StateSep 12
3vsAkronSep 19
4@WashingtonSep 26
5vsMichiganOct 3
6@PurdueOct 10
8vsIowaOct 24
9@IndianaOct 31
10vsUCLANov 7
11@Penn StateNov 14
12vsNorthwesternNov 21
13@WisconsinNov 28