Tennis / WTA Outright
US Open — Championship Odds
Hard · 128-player draw · Starts Aug 30, 2026 · Priced by BOV, FD, KAL
The real draw hasn't been made yet, so there's no bracket page for this event — Win% below is our model's expectation over thousands of sampled seeded draws rather than one exact bracket. That's not a big caveat: our walk-forward testing found knowing the actual draw is worth only ~0.016 nats (the eventual champion gets 6.62% post-draw vs 6.51% pre-draw probability) — these numbers will barely move once the real bracket lands.
| Player | Win% | Fair | Mkt | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka | 26.7% | +274 | +257 (KAL) | -4.5% |
| Jessica Pegula | 17.1% | +487 | +1600 (BOV) | +189.9% |
| Elena Rybakina | 12.7% | +686 | +809 (KAL) | +15.7% |
| Coco Gauff | 8.1% | +1133 | +900 (KAL) | -18.9% |
| Iga Swiatek | 6.5% | +1434 | +950 (FD) | -31.6% |
| Mirra Andreeva | 3.6% | +2657 | +1200 (BOV) | -52.8% |
| Karolina Muchova | 3.4% | +2860 | +3233 (KAL) | +12.6% |
| Naomi Osaka | 3.2% | +3009 | +1567 (KAL) | -46.4% |
| Elina Svitolina | 2.8% | +3441 | +6600 (BOV) | +89.2% |
| Linda Noskova | 2.1% | +4677 | +2400 (KAL) | -47.7% |
| Marta Kostyuk | 1.9% | +5252 | +1900 (FD) | -62.6% |
| Amanda Anisimova | 1.8% | +5438 | +2400 (KAL) | -54.9% |
| Victoria Mboko | 1.6% | +5986 | +3500 (FD) | -40.8% |
| Alexandra Eala | 1.3% | +7579 | +5000 (BOV) | -33.6% |
| Belinda Bencic | 1.2% | +8366 | +5000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Madison Keys | 1.1% | +9385 | +3000 (FD) | -67.3% |
| Barbora Krejcikova | 0.7% | +13316 | +3500 (FD) | -73.2% |
| Diana Shnaider | 0.7% | +13410 | +8000 (FD) | no claim |
| Anna Kalinskaya | 0.5% | +18685 | +7500 (FD) | no claim |
| Sorana Cirstea | 0.3% | +38163 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Iva Jovic | 0.2% | +42897 | +2500 (BOV) | -94.0% |
| Marie Bouzkova | 0.2% | +46972 | +12500 (BOV) | no claim |
| Elise Mertens | 0.2% | +57169 | +12500 (BOV) | no claim |
| Qinwen Zheng | 0.1% | +67203 | +4000 (BOV) | -93.9% |
| Jasmine Paolini | 0.1% | +76141 | +6000 (FD) | no claim |
| Camila Osorio | 0.1% | +86793 | +20000 (FD) | no claim |
| Sara Bejlek | 0.1% | +89511 | +8000 (FD) | no claim |
| Clara Tauson | 0.1% | +103126 | +8000 (FD) | no claim |
| Anastasia Potapova | 0.1% | +104834 | +8000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Leylah Fernandez | 0.1% | +110609 | +10000 (FD) | no claim |
| Emma Navarro | 0.1% | +113627 | +6600 (BOV) | no claim |
| Tereza Valentova | 0.1% | +125373 | +10000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Jelena Ostapenko | 0.1% | +128888 | +8000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Daria Snigur | 0.1% | +141683 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Lilli Tagger | 0.1% | +146581 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Maria Sakkari | 0.1% | +175702 | +10000 (FD) | no claim |
| Elisabetta Cocciaretto | 0.1% | +195561 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Paula Badosa | 0.0% | +206092 | +8000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Liudmila Samsonova | 0.0% | +223296 | +12500 (BOV) | no claim |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | 0.0% | +227946 | +6600 (BOV) | no claim |
| Lanlana Tararudee | 0.0% | +238782 | +17500 (FD) | no claim |
| Hailey Baptiste | 0.0% | +289201 | +10000 (FD) | no claim |
| Katerina Siniakova | 0.0% | +303136 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Peyton Stearns | 0.0% | +343246 | +10000 (FD) | no claim |
| Ann Li | 0.0% | +350861 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Ashlyn Krueger | 0.0% | +389851 | +15000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Emma Raducanu | 0.0% | +426296 | +6600 (BOV) | no claim |
| Caty Mcnally | 0.0% | +440438 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Daria Kasatkina | 0.0% | +495220 | +15000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Katie Volynets | 0.0% | +559112 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Mccartney Kessler | 0.0% | +583907 | +10000 (FD) | no claim |
| Nikola Bartunkova | 0.0% | +589363 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Cristina Bucsa | 0.0% | +624011 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Xin Yu Wang | 0.0% | +726549 | +10000 (FD) | no claim |
| Maja Chwalinska | 0.0% | +813190 | +12500 (FD) | no claim |
| Yulia Putintseva | 0.0% | +821026 | +15000 (FD) | no claim |
| Magdalena Frech | 0.0% | +827198 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Veronika Kudermetova | 0.0% | +842951 | +10000 (FD) | no claim |
| Jaqueline Cristian | 0.0% | +913108 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Katie Boulter | 0.0% | +1032060 | +20000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Janice Tjen | 0.0% | +1049480 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Kamilla Rakhimova | 0.0% | +1130448 | +25000 (FD) | no claim |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | 0.0% | +1291752 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Anastasia Zakharova | 0.0% | +1216118 | +25000 (FD) | no claim |
| Anhelina Kalinina | 0.0% | +1396812 | +25000 (FD) | no claim |
| Alina Korneeva | 0.0% | +1358205 | +25000 (FD) | no claim |
| Viktorija Golubic | 0.0% | +1688143 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Zeynep Sonmez | 0.0% | +1716204 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Kimberly Birrell | 0.0% | +1635939 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Talia Gibson | 0.0% | +1581442 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Donna Vekic | 0.0% | +1644717 | +15000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Maya Joint | 0.0% | +1581421 | +10000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Taylor Townsend | 0.0% | +1926050 | +17500 (FD) | no claim |
| Mananchaya Sawangkaew | 0.0% | +1940333 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Karolina Pliskova | 0.0% | +2197357 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Magda Linette | 0.0% | +2739818 | +20000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Lois Boisson | 0.0% | +2739298 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Elena Gabriela Ruse | 0.0% | +3099761 | +25000 (FD) | no claim |
| Xiyu Wang | 0.0% | +3841685 | +10000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Eva Lys | 0.0% | +3069989 | +17500 (FD) | no claim |
| Oleksandra Oliynykova | 0.0% | +5459986 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Sofia Kenin | 0.0% | +4763039 | +15000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Oksana Selekhmeteva | 0.0% | +5792515 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Dayana Yastremska | 0.0% | +5037705 | +12500 (BOV) | no claim |
| Anna Bondar | 0.0% | +5299760 | +25000 (FD) | no claim |
| Antonia Ruzic | 0.0% | +5964591 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Renata Zarazua | 0.0% | +4985942 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva | 0.0% | +6589336 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Tamara Korpatsch | 0.0% | +8644973 | +17500 (FD) | no claim |
| Kaitlin Quevedo | 0.0% | +11453776 | +25000 (FD) | no claim |
| Ajla Tomljanovic | 0.0% | +12486101 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Alycia Parks | 0.0% | +12751173 | +10000 (FD) | no claim |
| Mayar Sherif | 0.0% | +13810478 | +25000 (FD) | no claim |
| Sinja Kraus | 0.0% | +9852413 | +25000 (FD) | no claim |
| Solana Sierra | 0.0% | +10491299 | +17500 (FD) | no claim |
| Diane Parry | 0.0% | +16520427 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Maria Timofeeva | 0.0% | +17230514 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Hanne Vandewinkel | 0.0% | +42472163 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +474262330464702 | — | — |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +361406932516980 | — | — |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +459989299512310 | — | — |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +407958434505934 | — | — |
| Jil Teichmann | 0.0% | +282873001 | +25000 (FD) | no claim |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +457254744901957 | — | — |
| Simona Waltert | 0.0% | +39170492 | +20000 (FD) | no claim |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +464814309612561 | — | — |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +473416922108774 | — | — |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +540336867386768 | — | — |
| Shuai Zhang | 0.0% | +39067607 | +25000 (FD) | no claim |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +481808269531184 | — | — |
| Irina Camelia Begu | 0.0% | +991750015 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +445162663550238 | — | — |
| Petra Marcinko | 0.0% | +36756793 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +540726579963075 | — | — |
| Panna Udvardy | 0.0% | +107715134 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +566378898150593 | — | — |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +467719151451304 | — | — |
| Aoi Ito | 0.0% | +45073370 | +17500 (FD) | no claim |
| Beatriz Haddad Maia | 0.0% | +879472566 | +20000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +522663101334545 | — | — |
| Tatjana Maria | 0.0% | +37230544 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Ella Seidel | 0.0% | +27672606 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +507470172023978 | — | — |
| Emiliana Arango | 0.0% | +38039747 | +25000 (FD) | no claim |
| Laura Siegemund | 0.0% | +42727098 | +17500 (FD) | no claim |
| Veronika Erjavec | 0.0% | +768677275 | +25000 (FD) | no claim |
| Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova | 0.0% | +32824640 | +10000 (FD) | no claim |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +511233013654254 | — | — |
Win% is our championship probability from an exact bracket simulation over every possible path through the draw. Fair odds are what we'd need to see to call it a coin flip; Mkt and Devig are the best available outright price and its no-vig fair probability. EV is guarded the same way match predictions are: a reference price too long a shot to trust, a sharp model/market disagreement, or an implausibly large apparent edge all suppress the claim rather than publish a number we don't trust — hover "no claim" for the specific reason. Not betting advice.