Tennis / ATP Outright
US Open — Championship Odds
Hard · 128-player draw · Starts Aug 30, 2026 · Priced by BOV, FD, KAL
The real draw hasn't been made yet, so there's no bracket page for this event — Win% below is our model's expectation over thousands of sampled seeded draws rather than one exact bracket. That's not a big caveat: our walk-forward testing found knowing the actual draw is worth only ~0.016 nats (the eventual champion gets 6.62% post-draw vs 6.51% pre-draw probability) — these numbers will barely move once the real bracket lands.
| Player | Win% | Fair | Mkt | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner | 49.3% | +103 | -108 (KAL) | -5.3% |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 17.2% | +482 | +285 (KAL) | -33.9% |
| Alexander Zverev | 7.6% | +1209 | +1011 (KAL) | -15.1% |
| Taylor Fritz | 3.8% | +2562 | +3500 (FD) | +35.2% |
| Novak Djokovic | 3.3% | +2931 | +1567 (KAL) | -45.0% |
| Alex De Minaur | 3.1% | +3103 | +6600 (BOV) | no claim |
| Felix Auger Aliassime | 2.2% | +4433 | +4900 (KAL) | +10.3% |
| Ben Shelton | 1.9% | +5105 | +4000 (FD) | -21.2% |
| Daniil Medvedev | 1.4% | +7176 | +3233 (KAL) | -54.2% |
| Lorenzo Musetti | 1.2% | +8349 | +6000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Rafael Jodar | 1.2% | +8564 | +4900 (KAL) | -42.3% |
| Arthur Fils | 1.1% | +9393 | +5500 (FD) | no claim |
| Jiri Lehecka | 0.8% | +12994 | +6600 (BOV) | no claim |
| Jakub Mensik | 0.7% | +15054 | +4900 (KAL) | -67.0% |
| Learner Tien | 0.5% | +19444 | +10000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Tommy Paul | 0.5% | +19695 | +6600 (BOV) | no claim |
| Brandon Nakashima | 0.4% | +24951 | +20000 (FD) | no claim |
| Casper Ruud | 0.4% | +25293 | +10000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Alexander Bublik | 0.3% | +30029 | +5500 (FD) | no claim |
| Joao Fonseca | 0.3% | +34956 | +4900 (KAL) | -85.7% |
| Andrey Rublev | 0.3% | +35248 | +10000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Francisco Cerundolo | 0.3% | +36281 | +40000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Alex Michelsen | 0.2% | +51215 | +25000 (FD) | no claim |
| Ugo Humbert | 0.2% | +58506 | +20000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Frances Tiafoe | 0.2% | +61176 | +8000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Jack Draper | 0.1% | +66374 | +6000 (FD) | no claim |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 0.1% | +74724 | +15000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Sebastian Korda | 0.1% | +80191 | +15000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Alejandro Tabilo | 0.1% | +84633 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Denis Shapovalov | 0.1% | +92351 | +15000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Karen Khachanov | 0.1% | +94802 | +15000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Valentin Vacherot | 0.1% | +96296 | +25000 (FD) | no claim |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 0.1% | +98505 | +17500 (FD) | no claim |
| Alexander Blockx | 0.1% | +108712 | +25000 (FD) | no claim |
| Cameron Norrie | 0.1% | +114540 | +40000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Holger Rune | 0.1% | +126229 | +6600 (BOV) | no claim |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 0.1% | +126574 | +15000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Flavio Cobolli | 0.1% | +136119 | +10000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Luciano Darderi | 0.1% | +170805 | +17500 (FD) | no claim |
| Jaume Munar | 0.1% | +177112 | +17500 (FD) | no claim |
| Raphael Collignon | 0.0% | +231899 | +35000 (FD) | no claim |
| Zizou Bergs | 0.0% | +355898 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Arthur Rinderknech | 0.0% | +377625 | +25000 (FD) | no claim |
| Tomas Machac | 0.0% | +379747 | +20000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Hubert Hurkacz | 0.0% | +432444 | +10000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Luca Van Assche | 0.0% | +454517 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Kamil Majchrzak | 0.0% | +526930 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Quentin Halys | 0.0% | +539508 | +25000 (FD) | no claim |
| Mariano Navone | 0.0% | +604353 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Matteo Berrettini | 0.0% | +652719 | +10000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Yannick Hanfmann | 0.0% | +768866 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Dino Prizmic | 0.0% | +799383 | +8000 (FD) | no claim |
| Ignacio Buse | 0.0% | +907972 | +17500 (FD) | no claim |
| Martin Landaluce | 0.0% | +944057 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Terence Atmane | 0.0% | +1048762 | +15000 (FD) | no claim |
| Ethan Quinn | 0.0% | +1012305 | +25000 (FD) | no claim |
| Juncheng Shang | 0.0% | +1157570 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Tallon Griekspoor | 0.0% | +1448600 | +15000 (FD) | no claim |
| Thanasi Kokkinakis | 0.0% | +1374798 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Nuno Borges | 0.0% | +1476694 | +25000 (FD) | no claim |
| Jenson Brooksby | 0.0% | +1333730 | +25000 (FD) | no claim |
| Sebastian Baez | 0.0% | +1520523 | +15000 (FD) | no claim |
| Corentin Moutet | 0.0% | +1669298 | +35000 (FD) | no claim |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | 0.0% | +1649942 | +25000 (FD) | no claim |
| Marcos Giron | 0.0% | +2110123 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Alexei Popyrin | 0.0% | +1885642 | +15000 (FD) | no claim |
| Grigor Dimitrov | 0.0% | +2303233 | +10000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Zachary Svajda | 0.0% | +2573693 | +25000 (FD) | no claim |
| Matteo Arnaldi | 0.0% | +2708857 | +35000 (FD) | no claim |
| Jaime Faria | 0.0% | +2710696 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Botic Van De Zandschulp | 0.0% | +4006248 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Hamad Medjedovic | 0.0% | +2894885 | +25000 (FD) | no claim |
| Arthur Fery | 0.0% | +3975976 | +12500 (FD) | no claim |
| Daniel Merida Aguilar | 0.0% | +2943880 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Pablo Carreno Busta | 0.0% | +3345221 | +25000 (FD) | no claim |
| Fabian Marozsan | 0.0% | +2923231 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Roman Safiullin | 0.0% | +5216500 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Lorenzo Sonego | 0.0% | +5390152 | +17500 (FD) | no claim |
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 0.0% | +4485368 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Adam Walton | 0.0% | +5252842 | +25000 (FD) | no claim |
| Gabriel Diallo | 0.0% | +5923571 | +15000 (FD) | no claim |
| Marton Fucsovics | 0.0% | +5836120 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Adrian Mannarino | 0.0% | +6045782 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Rinky Hijikata | 0.0% | +4864099 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Alex Molcan | 0.0% | +5957310 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Marin Cilic | 0.0% | +5361450 | +25000 (FD) | no claim |
| Jan Lennard Struff | 0.0% | +8847430 | +25000 (FD) | no claim |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | 0.0% | +8477676 | +20000 (FD) | no claim |
| Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | 0.0% | +12048786 | +15000 (BOV) | no claim |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | 0.0% | +17878952 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Alexander Shevchenko | 0.0% | +17133569 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Mattia Bellucci | 0.0% | +9016761 | +22500 (FD) | no claim |
| Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | 0.0% | +14614630 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | 0.0% | +7270310 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Daniel Altmaier | 0.0% | +8311514 | +25000 (FD) | no claim |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +356336320653791 | — | — |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +286646063210980 | — | — |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +248062705137238 | — | — |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +281245591712259 | — | — |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +260696001008436 | — | — |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +274111031640299 | — | — |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +251179568038235 | — | — |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 0.0% | +32590250 | +25000 (FD) | no claim |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +267987108762683 | — | — |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +255360145941749 | — | — |
| Francisco Comesana | 0.0% | +26261656 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +282030162832267 | — | — |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +298915707823116 | — | — |
| Damir Dzumhur | 0.0% | +110147824 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +324105749331802 | — | — |
| Jan Choinski | 0.0% | +519477886 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +290638655760253 | — | — |
| Sho Shimabukuro | 0.0% | +25639614 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Emilio Nava | 0.0% | +37396127 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Marco Trungelliti | 0.0% | +183140245 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +251880949728775 | — | — |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +325967023443310 | — | — |
| Vit Kopriva | 0.0% | +25365901 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +323794490653406 | — | — |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +259503624762126 | — | — |
| James Duckworth | 0.0% | +27469648 | +25000 (FD) | no claim |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +308905458910640 | — | — |
| Jesper De Jong | 0.0% | +64792508 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +280566579715915 | — | — |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +285359791109490 | — | — |
| Filip Misolic | 0.0% | +667014162 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +271438490486903 | — | — |
| Valentin Royer | 0.0% | +82659147 | +50000 (FD) | no claim |
Win% is our championship probability from an exact bracket simulation over every possible path through the draw. Fair odds are what we'd need to see to call it a coin flip; Mkt and Devig are the best available outright price and its no-vig fair probability. EV is guarded the same way match predictions are: a reference price too long a shot to trust, a sharp model/market disagreement, or an implausibly large apparent edge all suppress the claim rather than publish a number we don't trust — hover "no claim" for the specific reason. Not betting advice.