Rolex Shanghai Masters — Championship OddsFinal

Win% is our championship probability from an exact bracket simulation over every possible path through the draw. Fair odds are what we'd need to see to call it a coin flip; Mkt and Devig are the best available outright price and its no-vig fair probability.

The two EV columns are the same calculation measured against two different yardsticks, and we show both rather than pick one for you. Kalshi is an exchange where people bet against each other, so its prices carry roughly 1% margin and are already close to fair — but it only lists about a dozen players per tournament. Book is the best sportsbook price, and sportsbook outright boards carry 55–65% margin, which we have to strip back out by estimate. That estimate systematically shrinks longshots, so the same player can clear our guards on one yardstick and not the other. A dash means that venue doesn't price the player at all. EV is guarded the same EV is claimed only for players we give at least a 1% chance of winning the title; below that a tiny error in our number swings EV wildly, so we stay quiet — hover "no claim" for the reason. We do not suppress a number just because it disagrees sharply with the market: on outright markets a big gap at a long price is ordinary, and hiding it would only flatter our record. Large EVs are real and are not clamped. Every published claim is tracked against the closing price. Not betting advice.