Tuesday, Jul 14, 1:00 AM
Phoenix Mercury @ Minnesota Lynx
Tue 1:00 AMMIN -11.5 · +7.9% EV
Spread (MIN)
-12.5 vs -11.5MIN covers 54%
Total
171.0 vs 170over 52%
Score distribution
Margin (MIN minus PHX)
p5 -17p25 -2median +10p75 +21p95 +37
Total points
p5 143p25 159median 171p75 182p95 200
Team ratings
| 8 | W-L | 18 |
| 1400 | Elo | 1644 |
| 98.9 | Off rtg | 112.8 |
| 110.7 | Def rtg | 103.4 |
| 79.0 | Pace | 79.6 |
Off/def rating: points per 100 possessions — def rating LOWER is better. League averages: off 107.5, pace 80.6.
Projected players
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 31.2 | 20.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 31.2 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 6.9 |
| Valeriane Ayayi | 25.6 | 11.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 27.8 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 1.5 |
| Natasha Mack | 24.1 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 1.8 |
| Monique Akoa Makani | 20.3 | 8.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| Lexi Held | 21.6 | 7.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| Sami Whitcomb | 17.4 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 1.7 |
Minnesota Lynx
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayla McBride | 34.4 | 17.8 | 3.8 | 2.7 |
| Olivia Miles | 28.8 | 17.0 | 4.5 | 4.8 |
| Natasha Howard | 29.2 | 15.1 | 7.7 | 2.6 |
| Courtney Williams | 29.5 | 14.4 | 5.3 | 4.1 |
| Emma Cechova | 19.3 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| Dorka Juhasz | 18.8 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.9 |
| Jaylyn Sherrod | 18.0 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.8 |
| Nia Coffey | 21.3 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
Injuries
Phoenix Mercury
Natasha MackOut · Foot
Jovana NogicOut · Not Injury Related
As of 7/13/2026, 7:57:47 AM
Minnesota Lynx
Napheesa CollierOut · Ankle
Emma CechovaOut · Knee
As of 7/13/2026, 7:57:47 AM
Expected value
Moneyline-0.7% EV
Spread+7.9% EV
Total-1.3% EV
EV is shown exactly as published — never recomputed here. A pick chip on the slate means the model actually staked this game; every abstention is captioned, not hidden. For informational purposes only; not betting advice.