Tennis / ATP Outright
Mubadala DC Open — Championship Odds
Hard · 32-player draw · Starts Jul 27, 2026
View the full bracket →| Player | Win% | Fair | Mkt | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex De Minaur | 16.6% | +502 | — | — |
| Arthur Fils | 10.7% | +831 | — | — |
| Lorenzo Musetti | 10.2% | +878 | — | — |
| Taylor Fritz | 9.5% | +950 | — | — |
| Ben Shelton | 9.0% | +1010 | — | — |
| Jakub Mensik | 6.7% | +1391 | — | — |
| Learner Tien | 5.8% | +1639 | — | — |
| Tommy Paul | 4.9% | +1936 | — | — |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 4.4% | +2190 | — | — |
| Ugo Humbert | 3.8% | +2502 | — | — |
| Frances Tiafoe | 3.5% | +2730 | — | — |
| Jack Draper | 3.3% | +2908 | — | — |
| Rafael Jodar | 2.9% | +3351 | — | — |
| Alejandro Tabilo | 1.5% | +6443 | — | — |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 1.4% | +6801 | — | — |
| Brandon Nakashima | 1.3% | +7652 | — | — |
| Matteo Arnaldi | 1.0% | +9454 | — | — |
| Alex Michelsen | 1.0% | +10214 | — | — |
| Ethan Quinn | 0.6% | +16486 | — | — |
| Tallon Griekspoor | 0.4% | +22383 | — | — |
| Zizou Bergs | 0.4% | +22640 | — | — |
| Juncheng Shang | 0.3% | +35511 | — | — |
| Terence Atmane | 0.2% | +41322 | — | — |
| Kamil Majchrzak | 0.2% | +50590 | — | — |
| Kei Nishikori | 0.0% | +299222 | — | — |
| Adrian Mannarino | 0.0% | +308179 | — | — |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +13356028787 | — | — |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +14164940362 | — | — |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | — | — | — |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +3675366728 | — | — |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | +3897966334 | — | — |
| Qualifier | 0.0% | — | — | — |
Win% is our championship probability from an exact bracket simulation over every possible path through the draw. Fair odds are what we'd need to see to call it a coin flip; Mkt and Devig are the best available outright price and its no-vig fair probability. EV is guarded the same way match predictions are: a reference price too long a shot to trust, a sharp model/market disagreement, or an implausibly large apparent edge all suppress the claim rather than publish a number we don't trust — hover "no claim" for the specific reason. Not betting advice.